Sunday, November 2, 2014

Predictions Anyone?

Tuesday is election day, and while there are very few people who are undecided at this point, the candidates are pulling out all of the stops in order to get their message out until the very last moment.
I'm neither an expert nor a prophet (unless my predictions turn out to be true and then I'll claim both titles). This is how I see several of the elections, just based on what I've observed and on discussions I have had with a number of people. Please post your opinions and predictions in the comments section.
School Board
Three seats are in play. 
District 3: Incumbent Tammy Armer Smith was redistricted out of her District 4 seat and is running against incumbent Frank Kelly for the District 3 seat. It's an unusual situation, but I believe that Tammy has the edge.
Winner: Tammy Armer Smith
District 4: The seat being vacated by Tammy is being contested by three people, Richard Phipps II, Elizabeth Foster and Bill Lott. It appears that all are good candidates, but I don't have enough input or intuition to make a call in this one.
District 9: Incumbent Eddy Ray Presley is being challenged by Eric Newman. This one had possibilities, Presley offended a lot of people last year with his remarks about 'the morons in South Bossier'. With lawsuits and a lot of talk about bullying in South Bossier schools, this could have given Newman a platform to work with. From what I can tell, he hasn't taken advantage of it and appears to be a 'me too' candidate.
Winner: Eddy Presley
Bossier City Marshal
Will the Fox get into the Henhouse? Carl Wayne Richard is making another run for the office, this time against Marshal's Captain Jim Whitman. In the beginning, I would have given Richard the edge simply because of name recognition. Whitman, who was not that well known, has introduced himself and presented himself well to the public. Considering that he has some powerful backing, and that Richard has some baggage, I think Whitman has caught up.
Winner: Jim Whitman
District Attorney
This is a fascinating campaign. When Whit Graves first announced, he knew it was an uphill battle. At that time I would have predicted that incumbent Schuyler Marvin would carry 60% of the vote, but there are a couple of things that factor into the race. First, this is a two-parish Judicial District, consisting of Bossier and Webster Parishes. Webster Parish, where Schuyler is from, comprises about 20% of the District. Bossier, where Graves lives, is 80%. As one person who is very familiar with the system and with both of the candidates observed, at some point the tail will stop wagging the dog. It is an interesting dynamic and one that might come into play. Second, Graves has run an aggressive campaign, and from the people I've talked to, has drawn points with his attacks on the DA's Investigator, who was convicted of a misdemeanor in the past. (I apologize for originally calling this a felony, it wasn't). 
This same investigator was a close friend of confessed killer and convicted robber Larry Thompson. This has caused concern to a number of people that I have heard from and sent that race into topsy-turvy mode.
Winner: Too close to call
Shreveport Mayor's Race
A small part of Shreveport is in Bossier Parish, certainly not enough to make a difference in this election. I am only posting this because at this point I'm glad that I don't live in Shreveport and glad that I don't have to deal with it.
This race has taken a very ugly turn, with accusations of mental disabilities and a 50 year old domestic abuse/murder case coming into play. 
I look forward to election night and seeing what the results are. As I said in the beginning of this post, I would love to see how you all see things. Please comment.


  1. Jim you've touched on something I've been wondering about, and if it's been brought up during the election, I guess I have missed it. As a life-long resident of Bossier I have wondered how someone from Webster has such a strong footing in a DA's office with, what you just referred to, an 80/20 split among the two parishes. It just seems odd . . . a growing and progressive parish with a higher and rising crime rate and a rural parish with a relatively low and comparatively lower crime rate sharing the same DA's office. My concern and question is are Bossier taxpayers funding the prosecution of crimes in Webster Parish? Does the bigger parish with more tax dollars financially support the smaller parish with less tax dollars.

  2. Anon @ 8:59 Candidates from Webster Parish have to do little to gain a majority of votes at home because everyone knows each other just like we did here in Bossier City when the population was only 25,000 with one high school. Thus the battle is for Bossier City and a Bossier candidate has to fight to get 60% at home to overcome the Webster Parish block vote. It has been a long time since anyone got 60% of the vote in Bossier. It becomes even harder when candidates who have to get along to get anything done openly support each other in fear of losing support for their agenda even though they would really prefer to have the Bossier candidate over the Webster incumbent. Basically we've lost that small town personal touch and availability of public officials. The apparent control by Webster Parish will only end when either 1) Webster grows enough to lose its small town personal touch or 2) Bossier grows enough and Webster loses enough to make the Webster Parish vote insignificant. The latter is probably what will happen. Until then Webster Parish candidates will continue to enjoy an advantage over Bossier candidates and take money from Bossier to supplement Webster deficiencies. What a deal for Webster.

  3. Marvin 58
    Graves 42

    Whitman 55
    Richard 45

    Smith 59
    Kelly 41

    1. Graves over Marvin
      Whitman over Richard
      Kelly over Smith

  4. Graves 51
    Marvin 49

    Whitman 60
    Richard 40

    Smith 55
    Kelly 45

  5. I was informed that Phipps has withdrawn from the School Board District 4 race.

    1. Too late now. He's on the ballot.

  6. Marvin has spend $300,000 on the race compared to Graves measly budget. Money talks, bull@$% walks. As much as most of you refuse to believe it MONEY controls and Marvin wins easily.

  7. Money doesn't vote, people do.

  8. Your probably right. Money does seem to win around here. But you see how important it is for people around here to get their candidate elected. Gotta have those favors.

  9. It's called the Democratic process. Ever heard of a lobbyist? Duhhhhhh
    A lobbyist supports a candidate, the candidate gets elected, the lobbyist gets favors. This system has been around since 1776. No difference in local elections. If you don't like the process move to China or Russia then you will not have to worry about it.

  10. Lol, calm down Marvin supporter. Just because he may lose doesn't mean you got to get mad about it. Like you said it's the democratic process. An election some would say. But guess what. Sometimes the candidate with the most money loses. People get tired of all the favors. People got tired of Larry Deen. See what's happening to him and a few of his lobbyist? Beware

  11. Its called the good old boy network...aka southern corruption!.....Mr. Marvin s margin of victory will be small considering he out spent Graves 4 to one. Graves will lose by a slim margin and Marvin will look weak. Also, Marvin has spent so much time and money just to win this thing from a man that has lost three elections..What does that tell you??..I almost think Whit is running against Marvin to prove a point and not to be DA......

  12. Leave the Marvin supporter alone. They're having a hard time and scurrying around not being able to plug all the holes in the sinking ship. And by the way, the term lobbyist came from when whoever went to by lobby of the hotel close to the Whitehouse and bought President Grant cigars and whiskey got what they wanted. Bribery at its best. Many consider Grant to be the 3rd worst President in history only behind Obama and Carter. So if that's the kind of government you want, you move to Russia or China because its a whole lost worse over there than here.

    1. The Willard Hotel is what you're thinking of just to clarify. It is a beautiful hotel.
      I have nothing to say on topic. There's no point. It's all over tomorrow.

  13. Graves is not running to prove a point, Graves is running to be DA and correct the things that are not being done correctly. What puzzles me is why Marvin didn't spend more money since he had it and evidently is a master at recouping it through more fundraisers. Some believe that Marvin has his sights on higher office, maybe to follow his father's footsteps at the court of appeals. Maybe Marvin should have spent more on this campaign than he did especially since Jim is not the only one who calls this election too close to call. His middle class lobbyists will abandon him when he can't do them any more favors and the $250k he has may be all that he has when he runs for something other than DA.

    1. Marvin may get elected dog catcher, but once the dragon is slayed this time that is all he will be eligible for.

    2. Don't sell Marvin short. He is still considered a force in Webster where he helped Gene Reynolds get elected. I don't think he could beat Henry Burns for Senator but he could surely go after Reynolds for Representative. For sure he won't stay idle. It's not in his 1/2 Campbell blood.

    3. I hear Dr. Scoop makes a mean humble pie. Any of you doubters of the rules of probability care for a taste?

  14. Richard got dominated by Whitman.

  15. Jim, you owe Buddy Mondello an apology. Buddy Mondello, nor anyone else in the DA's office, is a convicted felon. But that's just typical of Whits (and your) distortion of the truth. You should be sued for that kind of reckless statement but Buddy is too honorable a man to do that. Apology?

    1. 3 days from being called out and 12 days from the actual lie and no acknowledgment of a serious misstatement or lie. Guess you know where the author stands. Should change the name to "Whit's Bossier" or "Inquisitor, Jr.". There will be no apology. You will be lucky to get some mealy mouthed side-stepping and deflection when caught in a lie in this place. It is very sad that 46% percent of the people can be deceived and swayed by outright lies-- but they're the ones that keep con-men in business. It is also very discouraging that there are others that absolutely know the truth, but instead go full in for the rumor mongering and lies--- those are the truly bad folks and they and their ilk are the reason why thankfully some good people still run for office and keep those wolves at bay. Funny how there was no report on here or the inquisitor about Graves' campaign worker getting a DWI while campaigning her graves for da shirt or about how the graves-backer who drove around with the anti-S. Marvin signs in his truck got arrested for braining some old man with a shovel. No, it's just the same old, same old- repeat the same lie long enough and loud enough till people believe you. Pitiful.

    2. Just saw your comment. Are you saying that the gun charge in Caddo Parish against Buddy Mondello was a misdemeanor, rather than a felony? As for any charges about Graves campaign workers, this is the first I've heard of that. Please clarify about the Mondello conviction.

    3. Nobody will probably read this since its been almost a month since the election but here goes anyway:
      I challenge 11-14-14 @ 5:24 P.M., or anyone else, to specifically point to anything, anything at all, Graves put in the "Courtroom Reporter" that is a lie.
      Jim, you did make a mistake in saying Frank "Buddy" Mondello is a felon. What he did when he shot at an unarmed black man could have been charged as a felony but he only pled guilty to a misdemeanor. But still shooting at an unarmed black man and using the "N" word is indicative of his character. He is a good friend of the serial hit man Larry Thompson who admitted he campaigned for Schuyler Marvin so Buddy could get a job. Mondello is also a good friend of Garrett Wilson who also committed a murder and robbery and then later defrauded the school board out of a huge amount of money after being introduced to school board members by Patrick Jackson of the DA's office.
      As far as someone being arrested for DWI wearing a Graves T-shirt, so what? I dare you to get Marvin to submit to a blood test at any time of the day after noon and see what his alcohol level is. As far as a Graves backer driving around with anti Marvin signs on his truck and "graining some old man with a shovel", you need to also reveal he had several large signs on his property supporting Jim Whitman for marshall and the "old" man is twice the size of the supporter had been banned from the property and attacked the supporter first.
      There are good people and bad people on both sides of the equation. What you should have looked at was how Marvin and Graves handled their respective cases in deciding who and for what to prosecute for. A big clue: Watch what goes on in the months ahead as Marvin continues to cut "sweetheart" deals for his friends, either as the criminal or as the attorney for the criminal. Number 1 on the list is Jeffery Scott Humphries docket # 205419 for molesting his own daughter. Too late to say "I told you so." You've got Marvin for the next 6 years.


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2. No accustory statements about wrongdoing or criminal acts against anyone.
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